The United Nations' latest report, "World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results," projects that the global population will reach its peak in the mid-2080s. According to the report, the world’s population is expected to grow from 8.2 billion people in 2024 to approximately 10.3 billion by the mid-2080s. By the end of the century, this number is anticipated to slightly decline to around 10.2 billion. This updated projection is about 6% lower than previous estimates made a decade ago, indicating 700 million fewer people.
Li Junhua, UN Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs, highlighted the significant shifts in the global demographic landscape. "In some countries, the birth rate is now even lower than previously seen, and we are also seeing slightly faster declines in some high-fertility regions. This could mean reduced environmental pressures from human impacts due to lower aggregate consumption. However, slower population growth will not eliminate the need to reduce the average impact attributable to the activities of each individual person."
Several factors contribute to the earlier peak, including a notable decline in fertility rates in some of the world’s most populous nations, especially China. On average, women globally are having one child fewer than they did around 1990. Currently, in more than half of all countries and areas, the average number of live births per woman is below the replacement level of 2.1. Additionally, nearly a fifth of all countries, including China, Italy, South Korea, and Spain, have "ultra-low" fertility rates, with fewer than 1.4 live births per woman over a lifetime.
As of 2024, 63 countries and areas, including China, Germany, Japan, and Russia, have seen their populations peak, with a projected 14% decline over the next thirty years. Another 48 countries, such as Brazil, Iran, Turkey, and Vietnam, are expected to peak between 2025 and 2054. In contrast, 126 countries, including India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan, and the United States, will continue to grow through 2054 and may peak in the latter half of the century. Among these, nine countries, including Angola and Somalia, are projected to experience very rapid growth, doubling their populations between 2024 and 2054.
Early pregnancies remain a significant challenge in low-income countries, with 4.7 million babies born to mothers under 18 in 2024, including 340,000 to children under 15. These early pregnancies pose serious health risks for both young mothers and their children.
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The report emphasizes the importance of investing in the education of young people, particularly girls, and increasing the ages of marriage and first childbirth. These measures are expected to yield positive outcomes for women's health, educational attainment, and labor force participation. Additionally, such efforts will contribute to slowing population growth and reducing the scale of investments required to achieve sustainable development, ensuring no one is left behind.
Mortality rates have decreased significantly over the past three decades, and life expectancy has risen. After a temporary decline during the COVID-19 pandemic, global life expectancy at birth is increasing again, reaching 73.3 years in 2024, up from 70.9 years during the pandemic. By the late 2050s, more than half of all global deaths will occur at age 80 or higher, a substantial increase from 17% in 1995.
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By the late 2070s, the number of people aged 65 years or older is projected to surpass the number of children under 18, and by the mid-2030s, the number of people aged 80 or older will be larger than the number of infants under age one. Even in rapidly growing countries with youthful populations, the number of elderly individuals is expected to rise significantly over the next 30 years.
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These demographic trends highlight the evolving challenges and opportunities facing global population dynamics. Policymakers and societies must adapt to these changes to ensure sustainable development and improved quality of life for all.
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